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Tuesday, August 24, 2004

Osama Bin Laden and The Election

Osama Bin Laden's Al-Qaeda is a force to reckon with whether we like it or not. Bin Laden claims to be at war with the US, and in the context of that war it is entirely possible that he will order his forces to attack the US in order to influence the political process in the US to his liking. As I have written before, that means Osama may indeed attempt to influence the outcome of the US Presidential Election on November 2, 2004,- and that we should not fall for his tricks.

However, there is a question that appears reasonable to ask under the circumstances,- if Osama were to choose, whom would he like to win the Election? Sam Rosenfeld attempts to answer this question in his American Prospect article. He is making a good argument against the wide-spread notion that Bin Laden desperately wants Bush voted out of office.
...responsible journalists will want to remind themselves that there is not a shred of credible evidence documenting al-Qaeda’s preferences in the election one way or the other. This shouldn’t be a shock; after all, the ideological differences between the two major American parties probably aren’t quite sufficient in scope to sway the hearts of radical Islamic theocrats.

But hey, forget ideology for a moment and think strategy. Let’s speculate: If you were bin Laden, and you had enjoyed a year and a half respite from America’s full, undivided attention, as special ops forces, intelligence operatives, and spy satellites were diverted from the pursuit of al-Qaeda to the invasion of Iraq, for which candidate might you feel the most gratitude? If you were bin Laden, and had watched the United States turn its invasion of Iraq into a cause célèbre for Islamic terrorists worldwide, which candidate might you deem the most useful and effective as a recruiting tool for your organization?

I think Mr Rosenfeld is right on the money here.

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