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Tuesday, August 10, 2004

"Pre-election October Surprise"?

The Bush administration is suddenly discovering Iran's various follies. Iran, however, is generally not making any moves that could be interpreted as a direct threat to the US. It is certainly a threat to Israel, as it has stated many times, but in spite of all the Iranian bellicose rhetoric it most likely realizes what it is up against and Israel's nuclear deterrence policy,- unstated but well known,- is more likely than not going to work.

Than why all these severe pronouncements by our administration which stop just short of threatening military action against Iran if that country is not a direct threat to us,- neither in terms of its policy, nor in terms of its capabilities? The pre-election surprise seems, unfortunately, like something the administration is actively considering. And that can in fact help Bush win the election as Americans are less likely to vote a "War President" out of office.

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